Russia–Georgia: A Difficult Normalization
[Editor’s note: Context — On 4 October, the “Georgian Dream” party won a large victory in Georgia’s local elections amid low turnout and massive protests.]
Sergei Markedonov argues that Moscow has a window of opportunity until the 2028 Georgian parliamentary elections to normalize its relations with Tbilisi. Although “Georgian Dream” is not strictly pro-Russian, the country’s economic interests (trade, tourism) encourage it to adopt a pragmatic policy toward Moscow.
Nevertheless, several obstacles could prevent a lasting rapprochement between the two countries: on one hand, the persistence or growth of political and/or economic influence from other actors in Georgia (the United States, the European Union, Turkey, China); on the other, the clearly pro-European orientation of the country’s youth, which exposes the authorities to large-scale political protests in the event of an overly visible rapprochement with Russia.
To facilitate closer bilateral ties, the author concludes, Moscow would benefit from focusing on “cooperation with [Georgian] bloggers, the creation of new media, and the development of cross-border initiatives (for example, infrastructure projects in the ‘Greater Caucasus’).”
Expert: Sergei Markedonov, Research Director at MGIMO
Source: «Protestnyj potencial Tbilisi, gruzinskij Dèn Sâopin i vozmožnostʹ pragmatizacii rossijsko-gruzinskih otnošenij», Rossijskij Sovet po Mezdunarodnym Delam, 9 October 2025
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