Trump–Putin Summit: Four Scenarios

Editor’s note: On 21 October, both sides announced the suspension of the planned meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Budapest.]

The Centre for Political Conjuncture (headed by former Presidential Administration member Aleksei Chesnakov) outlines four possible scenarios for the future summit between the Russian and American leaders in Budapest.

• The first and most likely scenario is a reset: a de-escalation of tensions and a resumption of dialogue without spectacular results, apart from limited humanitarian steps.
• The second scenario, deemed relatively likely, is one of “rapid progress”, which would involve symbolic measures such as suspending long-range strikes and adopting a more conciliatory tone, particularly regarding sanctions.
• The third scenario, “institutionalizing the process”, considered relatively unlikely, would entail establishing a formal negotiation framework potentially involving Russia, the United States, Ukraine, and the European Union.
• Finally, according to the authors, the least likely scenario is that of a major breakthrough, with a large-scale agreement based on reciprocal concessions and a broader ceasefire in Ukraine — though even in this case, achieving lasting peace would remain uncertain.

Source: «Peregovory v usloviâh neopredelennosti», Centr političeskoj konʺûnktury, 20 October 2025.

Separately, retired captain Sergei Ishtchenko argues that the Russian side decided to postpone the summit in order to strengthen its military advantage in Ukraine and thus be able to dictate to Ukraine the harshest possible peace terms.

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