Ukraine: Russian Air Superiority and the Risk of Escalation

Vassili Kashin believes that the dynamics on the Ukrainian front are favorable to Russia: the country’s industrial and technological superiority already gives it an advantage in the use of drones and could, in the long run, allow it to completely dominate the low-altitude airspace. This advantage adds to its persistent dominance in traditional fields (aviation, artillery, missiles).

Ukraine is aware of its disadvantaged position, which probably explains its recent interest in peace initiatives led by China and Brazil. At the same time, it is not ready to accept Russia’s conditions for a settlement of the conflict. Consequently, a new phase of escalation could be in preparation on the Western side. The Trump administration, characterized by unpredictability and a taste for risk, could coordinate with Kyiv to carry out strikes deep into Russian territory [likely from Ukraine, Ed.]. According to the author, Russia must be ready to carry out retaliatory actions that “will not only affect Ukraine.”

The rest of the article also discusses Washington’s position, which remains hostile to Russia despite apparent ambiguities.

Expert: Vassili Kashin, Director of the Center for Strategic Studies, Higher School of Economics.
Source: “Pochemu rassuzhdeniâ o tupike v ukrainskom konflikte nelʹzâ vosprinimatʹ vserʹez,” Rossijskij Sovet po Meždunarodnym Delam, October 3, 2025.

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